Saturday, February 10, 2007

Global Warming. Is it evolution, natural, unstoppable?

Around fifty years ago there was another line of thought other than the one today; the earth is cooling from within, the sun will also lose its power to warm us, it will not be in our lifetime, but it is on the brink of happening! ………….....Not any more, it isn’t they are now telling us,

(Old beliefs, stood upon its head)!

People in the northern hemisphere are taking a lot of punishment, to satisfy politician’s desire to appear to be doing the “right thing”, whatever that is, I would be surprised to learn that they really know what the “right thing” is!
Climatic changes

Although I cannot corroborate this, I have been informed, that the Chinese seafarers, in around 10,000 years AD, were sailing ships though the Bering Straight (between Siberia & Alaska) in the fall or winter, which indicates that there may well have been an advanced state of temperate to warm conditions globally then.

England in the nineteenth century, suffered some really hard cold winters, it is hard it imagine the Thames frozen over with skaters on it in complete safety, the ice was that thick, and on moving water too, it is hard to believe now.

The writers last memory of a severe winter was the one spanning 1962-3; the snow fell thickly on Boxing Day, and it was almost mid-April before it was clear. But this was a trick of the weather systems, something which has not occurred since.

The unusual phenomenon, which brought about this spectacularly long cold winter, was due to a small high pressure system firmly “anchored”, over Denmark, (it has been close only once since), but on this occasion, it obviously was so neatly situated, that no Atlantic system could influence or dislodge it; in this position, it drew the ice-cold air from the Russian Steppes, across frozen Germany, entering our South-East counties. Scotland, an area which we expect to get all the cold, was having a mild time of it, with all the Atlantic low pressure systems passing over it, a similar situation I expect could have been the case for Iceland too.

Prior to that one, as winters go, was the winter of 1947, which was severe, but of shorter duration, starting, memory tells me, on the 31st. of January; temperatures were to my knowledge, down to minus 5 below zero Fahrenheit. This might just have been down to the same circumstances as the more recent ’63 winter; but in this period, there was no such a thing as a televised weather forecast, with a proper array of charted weather systems to aid us. These helpful indicators are now considered unnecessary for public consumption, but they are available on the Met Office web site, www.metoffice.com

To put the reader of this essay more in the picture, I have to digress; I go back to the era of exploration, of the colder parts of our wonderful planet.

Having mentioned the Chinese sailing through the Bering Straight and beyond, our Admiralty, early in the nineteenth century, funded expeditions to northern Canada to find the North West Passage, and the North Pole.

Coming in the wake of these exploratory expeditions firstly to the Arctic, in an attempt to find a way to sail into the pacific, without going all the was found Cape Horn, with all its hazards, especially as they hadn’t long mastered the art of longitude calculation, plus the fact that the weather down at the bottom of the world was, to say the least, unpredictable, to the frankly hazardous. For the First Lord of The Admiralty, Barrow, the next area of his interest was the Antarctic.

In 1838, James Clark Ross was given command of an expedition, to survey the entire southern continent of Antarctica; his second in command was Lieutenant Francis Crosier, two very experienced men of sail, and of Arctic exploration. He was required to set up observatories at all possible land and island sites around Antarctica, to aid him in his accuracy, of charting in detail the entire southern continent.

The expedition got under way in the Autumn of 1839, stopping off at St. Helena, where the first observatory was established, calling at Capetown, to erect their second, they repeated this on Kerguelen Island in March then Van Diemans Land, (Tasmania), in August 1840, which was a penal colony, where the Governor, had the convicts, build his fourth observatory; resting the crew for three months, and provisioned for the next winter’s efforts

Ross crossed the meridian on New Years Day 1841, and on the 9th. of January, were free of the ice whereupon they found clear water, and blue skies, and a ‘white horizon, which turned out to be the sun reflecting off ice. They were to discover an active volcano, which Ross named Mount Erebus, after his ship, a lesser mountain close by was named, Mount Terror after Crozia’s.

As they closed in, they came upon an ice shelf, or rather an ice cliff, for it was around 300 feet in height; this wall of glacial ice was two weeks still in evidence after sailing 250 miles, and they had not reached its extent; in one place where it was as low as 50 feet Ross climbed the mast to view the land, discovering an immense plain of silvery ice, reaching into the distance.

After intense mapping of the region, they headed out for Tasmania, arriving on the 9th. February 1841. Another observatory was built at Hobart, Ross took magnetic readings from other points, to check the accuracy of his mapping. He and Crosier, left again for Antarctica, on August 5th.1841, crossing the 146th. Meridian, were in the ice pack by Christmas, only to be frozen in, and subjected to severe storms.

When freedom came Ross headed his damaged ships away, making for
the Falkland Islands, only to find themselves in a sea full of icebergs, with care, he lead then out through some of the worst conditions so far experienced, with a vast number of icebergs, this past they sailed well, but during night was confronted, by a large ice-mass, and in precipitous avoiding action, collided with their accompanying ship; after much cutting away of the damaged rigging and repair, the ships limped into the Falklands, where they completed their efforts at making them seaworthy.

Ross was feted and well rewarded upon his return, having outclassed any efforts of other nations; bring back a most accurate set of maps, which would be used on much later expeditions.

Ross died in 1862, his efforts never bettered in fifty years, even by steam-power. After the expedition of Shackleton, Scott, Amundsen, who travelled from the ice shelf, and who failed to remark upon the retrocession of the ice shelf, since Scott had accurately mapped it.

Now we come to the part where, we compare an earlier time with todays.

Naturalist Joseph Hooker, who was with the Scott expedition, compared the maps in 1912. Hooker considered that the shelf had lost 1 mile per year, since the mapping of the continent in 1840.

Taking the fact that the glacial ice cliff was then 300 feet sheer, it must already have already been receding, and snapping under its own weight, and descending into the sea, just as the artic glacial ice is now being reported to be collapsing.

We are as always, proceeding into the unknown; long term climatic evolution takes thousands of years to complete a phase.

Going back to the 1800’s, Great Britain, was probably the only intensely industrial powerhouse, putting out and noticeable amount of heat, and smoke, there were no motor cars, no planes pushing out vast quantities of heat and carbon emissions about which we hear much less, than the brow-beating we get about all our day-to-day, personal activities.

There was no air-conditioning, no ‘fridges, no freezers either, or the power stations that produce the power used to make all these things work. When all said and done, a jolly good volcano can outclass many a nation’s output of heat and fume!

There really appears no answer to the problem, short of catastrophe, if the human race is to blame, if we are to turn down the heat enough to keep so called leaders happy, and for it to be effective, such a ‘turn-down’ would throw the entire world into financial melt-down, the economic disaster, given the vast over-population that there is, there must only be chaos as a result.

I appreciate that this essay starts off in a long trail, but the reader needs to appreciate the base from which we start, our civilisation, has no reliable earlier reference points, so one takes the first sound reference, and works from there.

This effort of mine, if nothing more, I hope it gives the reader something to think about, I have worked hard, I am a survivor, I can’t complain, life has been interesting.

Since compiling this, I have come across an article, which shows that cores taken from the polar regions, indicate that the cooling and warming cycles are apparent every 15000 years, this shoots down the argument, that the gross usage of oil is the cause. I will expand this at a later date.

Our masters, the politicians, who are supposed to serve us, (as we vote them to their posts) are a self-serving shambles, the writer only wishes that they were real leaders, and that they had some knowledge, of the job they undertook on our behalf; regrettably, the are no tests, to qualify someone, before they can be a politician.

G1927

Saturday, November 18, 2006

The historical policy of selling off the Council housing stock. Plus the history of money supply from 1957

I have never agreed with the sale of so many Council houses, apart from the continuing need for this form of reserve housing stock, the ratepayers were giving a massive subsidy to people who had the use of them and in the main the ratepayer was subsidising the cost of the house-stock, even as they were rented out, I do feel that they went out too cheaply.

A brush with the reality of excess money.

As with the performance of Mr. Heath / Barbour / Lawson and present Chancellor Brown; so many Chancellors have, "Gone -for-growth", as did the Macmillan Government in the ‘fifties’, only for things to go 'flat', afterwards. It is understandable for the Banks to lend this unsafe mass of money supply to house owners, they are more likely to be able to save themselves if / when it all falls flat again; they just are lumbered with liquidity, they lose money if they hang on to it. As in Margaret's day, it ramped on until in July 1988, Lawson started increasing the interest rate, by 1992, the Chancellor of the day was drawing in the money, the graph of money supply was -2%, and homes and businesses were being re-possessed. The poll Tax, if only Margaret, had admitted she had been "highjacked", and axed it at birth, just left rates as they were and re-instated a Poll tax, of £2 per week per person, she would have got her poll tax going, and would have not lost her popularity as she soon did.

What few folk realise, that the present Chancellor Brown, has, increased the amount of money in circulation, by a positive 13% cumulatively, (perhaps someone will add this equation), with derivatives this will come to 20%. The result? The Banks have so much money, it is a very real problem in managing the stuff, if they don’t lend it to some-one (anyone!) who will pay the interest, and not go bankrupt on them, they lose money.

So if you were a Banker where would you prefer to lend it? House owners of course, so are you really surprised that the price of property sky-rockets? Our Chancellor is responsible for the problem, and no-one lays it at his door; we old folk don’t want our house to be worth silly figures, we only want to live in a house.

But what does it do for our children, and grandchildren, the banks are so desperate, that they are seeking to loan it to a couple, at seven (7) times joint salary ! Yes that figure, don’t do it, you cannot afford it, unless you are that fortunate to be getting £1000,000 a year for your efforts. So many are attempting to try, by having an interest only mortgage, hoping that something will turn up, (not interest rates!)

When folk stop accepting silly telephone number figures, as the value of that flat, or house that they want to sell you, with the stamp duty and their margin, property prices will fall; it will happen, but it has been delayed, by low interest rates around the world.

Can anyone credit a labour government, depressing workers wages, by encouraging unlimited immigration, with all the unrest and chaos that will eventually come, but the immediate effect, is that wage inflation is depressed, which in turn means, that wages are too far behind the house price inflation, young folk have no chance, if they can get on the property ladder, the mortgage will still be there into their pension, that is assuming that they can hold out and pay.

There is but one chance, that is that the treasury, puts up £100,000 without interest, and without repayment until the banks top-up amount to the final cost is repaid. But house prices would have to be frozen, the only allowed to rise at the same rate as the Government says is the official inflation rate, otherwise houses would shoot up overnight. 'Maybe pie in the sky'.

Now, alas, the Country is ill-managed. =. A Mess.


g1927